The Future of the Automotive LiDAR Market

Driven by advancements in the automotive industry, LiDAR sales are projected to exceed 100 million units by 2030. The surge in LiDAR demand aligns with the growth in Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving requirements for passenger vehicles and Robo-taxi. As the number of LiDAR sensors per vehicle increases, potentially reaching up to 8 units for full autonomous driving, the LiDAR market is expected to grow at annual growth rate (CAGR) of 65.9%, reaching $15 billion by 2030.

L3 and higher autonomous driving will necessitate the integration of LiDAR, radar, and camera sensors. While a few companies like Tesla and Wayve aim for autonomous driving success without LiDAR, major automakers such as Mercedes-Benz, Nissan, BMW, Stellantis, Volkswagen, and Volvo have announced their intentions to incorporate LiDAR into their sensor suites for upcoming models with ADAS/AD sensor packages.

The primary threat to LiDAR comes from alternative technologies such as cameras and machine vision. Some companies believe that vision-based systems are sufficient for supporting autonomous driving, posing a potential hindrance to LiDAR growth due to the relatively lower cost of transitioning to cheaper vision-based solutions.

Current LiDAR Market for Automotive

The current LiDAR market is crowded, with over 70-80 companies globally operating for various industries and regions. Since 2020, nine companies – Velodyne, Luminar, Aeva, Ouster, Innoviz, Aeye, Indie Semiconductor, Quanergy, and Cepton – have announced their merger listings through SPACs.

Valeo's Scala is the world's first mass-produced automotive LiDAR. In 2021, Mercedes-Benz and Honda introduced level 3 models, the S-Class and Legend, respectively, both equipped with the Scala LiDAR. Valeo has shipped over 170,000 LiDAR devices since 2017.

According to a Counterpoint study, the value of the automotive LiDAR market reached approximately $100 million in 2021 as Toyota, Honda, and Chinese companies like Xpeng Motors launched models equipped with LiDAR. Many automotive original equipment manufacturers have signed agreements with LiDAR suppliers for upcoming models, with Chinese automakers leading in establishing such partnerships.

The Future of the Automotive LiDAR Market

According to Counterpoint's global autonomous driving passenger vehicle forecast, by 2025, 10% of newly sold cars worldwide will have L3 driving capability. Developed markets like the US and Europe will have a higher proportion of L3 cars and will be the first to witness the entry of L4 cars (subject to regulatory approval). This indicates significant growth opportunities for LiDAR, as by 2030, L3 and higher cars will penetrate the mainstream market. The LiDAR market is expected to grow over $15 billion by 2030, with shipments exceeding 100 million units.

Conclusion

With higher demands from automotive sector, it took over five years for LiDAR to enter mass production in automotive cars, yet widespread market penetration has not been achieved. However, it is still early for LiDAR, and its potential is vast. Despite the initially slow pace of adoption, the uptake of LiDAR is expected to accelerate.